tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Fresno via Seattle: arrives on time 60%

  1. 15:30 PDX → 16:30 SEA
    AS 3408 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 00m · 81% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:25 SEA → 19:36 FAT
    AS 393 · Alaska · 2h 11m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection80%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 20% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (80%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip4h 06mPDX 15:30 to FAT 19:36, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.