tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fresno → Portland via San Diego: arrives on time 30%

  1. 08:46 FAT → 10:12 SAN
    AS 3409 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 26m · 49% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:04 SAN → 13:43 PDX
    AS 576 · Alaska · 2h 39m · 88% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection35%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 65% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (35%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip4h 57mFAT 08:46 to PDX 13:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.