tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → San Francisco via San Diego: arrives on time 20%

  1. 13:30 SMF → 15:14 SAN
    AS 3439 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 44m · 77% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:14 SAN → 17:49 SFO
    AS 2314 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 35m · 28% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection77%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 23% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (77%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (28%).
Total trip4h 19mSMF 13:30 to SFO 17:49, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.