tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Dulles via San Diego: arrives on time 81%

  1. 06:00 SFO → 07:44 SAN
    AS 3455 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 44m · 69% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 50m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:34 SAN → 18:45 IAD
    AS 506 · Alaska · 5h 11m · 86% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 125 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 50m layover.
Arrives on time81%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip9h 45mSFO 06:00 to IAD 18:45, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.