tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → New York via San Francisco: arrives on time 39%

  1. 10:50 SNA → 12:27 SFO
    AS 3486 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 37m · 49% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 11m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:38 SFO → 22:26 JFK
    AS 42 · Alaska · 5h 48m · 68% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 26 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 11m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip8h 36mSNA 10:50 to JFK 22:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.