tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Newark via Santa Ana: arrives on time 86%

  1. 15:48 SFO → 17:26 SNA
    AS 3494 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 38m · 85% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 3h 49m layover in Santa Ana (SNA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 21:15 SNA → 05:33 EWR +1 day
    UA 2186 · United · 5h 18m · 90% on time, 3.2% cancelled

Total trip 10h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 139 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 49m layover.
Arrives on time86%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (3.2% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip10h 45mSFO 15:48 to EWR 05:33, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.