tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Bozeman → San Diego via Seattle: arrives on time 47%

  1. 18:58 BZN → 20:02 SEA
    AS 3498 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 2h 04m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:04 SEA → 23:56 SAN
    AS 1472 · Alaska · 2h 52m · 79% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Bozeman). Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip5h 58mBZN 18:58 to SAN 23:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.