tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Bozeman → Phoenix via Seattle: arrives on time 25%

  1. 18:58 BZN → 20:02 SEA
    AS 3498 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 2h 04m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:50 SEA → 23:49 PHX
    AS 644 · Alaska · 2h 59m · 70% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Bozeman). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection36%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 64% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (36%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip5h 51mBZN 18:58 to PHX 23:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.