tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Washington via Minneapolis: arrives on time 56%

  1. 11:52 XNA → 13:50 MSP
    DL 3536 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 58m · 89% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:38 MSP → 18:09 DCA
    DL 2963 · Delta · 2h 31m · 77% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip5h 17mXNA 11:52 to DCA 18:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.