tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → New York via Buffalo: arrives on time 36%

  1. 17:59 DTW → 19:17 BUF
    DL 3637 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 18m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Buffalo (BUF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:09 BUF → 21:49 JFK
    DL 5250 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 40m · 78% on time, 9.5% cancelled

Total trip 3h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (9.5% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip3h 50mDTW 17:59 to JFK 21:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.