tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Chicago via Detroit: arrives on time 43%

  1. 16:01 BUF → 17:19 DTW
    DL 3642 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 18m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:07 DTW → 18:25 MDW
    DL 4677 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 22m · 60% on time, 1.2% cancelled

Total trip 3h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Buffalo). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (1.2% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip3h 28mBUF 16:01 to MDW 18:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.