tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Phoenix via Minneapolis: arrives on time 74%

  1. 11:44 IAD → 13:39 MSP
    DL 3699 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 55m · 87% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:54 MSP → 16:09 PHX
    DL 2284 · Delta · 3h 21m · 82% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection91%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 9% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time74%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (91%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip7h 31mIAD 11:44 to PHX 16:09, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.