tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Tampa via Detroit: arrives on time 77%

  1. 10:35 SDF → 12:06 DTW
    DL 3821 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 31m · 88% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 59m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:05 DTW → 16:47 TPA
    DL 1243 · Delta · 2h 42m · 83% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 74 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 59m layover.
Arrives on time77%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip6h 12mSDF 10:35 to TPA 16:47, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.