tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Dulles via Detroit: arrives on time 80%

  1. 10:35 SDF → 12:06 DTW
    DL 3821 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 31m · 88% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 3h 04m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:10 DTW → 16:42 IAD
    DL 1787 · Delta · 1h 32m · 86% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 139 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 04m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip6h 07mSDF 10:35 to IAD 16:42, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.