tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Norfolk via Detroit: arrives on time 75%

  1. 06:00 IAD → 07:40 DTW
    DL 3826 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 40m · 86% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 20m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:00 DTW → 11:57 ORF
    DL 4654 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 57m · 79% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 95 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 20m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip5h 57mIAD 06:00 to ORF 11:57, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.