tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Phoenix via Detroit: arrives on time 70%

  1. 06:00 IAD → 07:40 DTW
    DL 3826 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 40m · 86% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:45 DTW → 09:56 PHX
    DL 1070 · Delta · 4h 11m · 80% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection87%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 13% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (87%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip6h 56mIAD 06:00 to PHX 09:56, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.