tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Santa Ana via Detroit: arrives on time 61%

  1. 06:00 IAD → 07:40 DTW
    DL 3826 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 40m · 86% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 40m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:20 DTW → 11:06 SNA
    DL 1857 · Delta · 4h 46m · 70% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection88%The first flight arrived more than 55 minutes late on 12% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 40m layover.
Arrives on time61%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (88%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip8h 06mIAD 06:00 to SNA 11:06, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.