tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Seattle via Detroit: arrives on time 60%

  1. 06:00 IAD → 07:40 DTW
    DL 3826 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 40m · 86% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:30 DTW → 10:31 SEA
    DL 734 · Delta · 5h 01m · 76% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection80%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 20% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (80%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip7h 31mIAD 06:00 to SEA 10:31, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.