tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sioux Falls → Phoenix via Minneapolis: arrives on time 71%

  1. 05:12 FSD → 06:20 MSP
    DL 3840 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 12m · 85% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:20 MSP → 08:38 PHX
    DL 1047 · Delta · 3h 18m · 87% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Sioux Falls). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection85%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 15% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (85%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip5h 26mFSD 05:12 to PHX 08:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.