tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sioux Falls → Phoenix via Minneapolis: arrives on time 71%

  1. 05:12 FSD → 06:20 MSP
    DL 3840 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 12m · 85% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 04m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:24 MSP → 10:46 PHX
    DL 2208 · Delta · 3h 22m · 77% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Sioux Falls). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 139 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 04m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip7h 34mFSD 05:12 to PHX 10:46, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.