tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Appleton → Chicago via Minneapolis: arrives on time 60%

  1. 16:16 ATW → 17:39 MSP
    DL 3861 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 23m · 74% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 2h 06m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 MSP → 21:25 ORD
    DL 1563 · Delta · 1h 40m · 68% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 81 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 06m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip5h 09mATW 16:16 to ORD 21:25, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.