tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Phoenix via Seattle: arrives on time 57%

  1. 09:30 PDX → 10:55 SEA
    DL 3953 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 25m · 85% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:45 SEA → 14:53 PHX
    DL 2449 · Delta · 3h 08m · 79% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip5h 23mPDX 09:30 to PHX 14:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.