tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Traverse City → Minneapolis via Detroit: arrives on time 36%

  1. 17:58 TVC → 19:15 DTW
    DL 3965 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 17m · 70% on time, 3.6% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:05 DTW → 21:00 MSP
    DL 1303 · Delta · 1h 55m · 65% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Traverse City). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (3.6% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip4h 02mTVC 17:58 to MSP 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.