tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → New York via Seattle: arrives on time 47%

  1. 11:20 SNA → 14:24 SEA
    DL 3966 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 3h 04m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 36m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:00 SEA → 00:25 JFK +1 day
    DL 461 · Delta · 5h 25m · 53% on time, 7.3% cancelled

Total trip 10h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 51 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 36m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (7.3% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip10h 05mSNA 11:20 to JFK 00:25, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.