tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → New York via Los Angeles: arrives on time 75%

  1. 06:00 SMF → 07:40 LAX
    DL 3969 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 40m · 96% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:30 LAX → 17:25 JFK
    DL 958 · Delta · 5h 55m · 83% on time, 3.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (3.0% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip8h 25mSMF 06:00 to JFK 17:25, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.