tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Sacramento via Minneapolis: arrives on time 88%

  1. 06:00 IAD → 07:55 MSP
    DL 3996 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 55m · 91% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 2h 28m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:23 MSP → 12:11 SMF
    DL 1701 · Delta · 3h 48m · 94% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 103 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 28m layover.
Arrives on time88%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (94%).
Total trip9h 11mIAD 06:00 to SMF 12:11, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.