tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Santa Ana via Minneapolis: arrives on time 68%

  1. 06:00 IAD → 07:55 MSP
    DL 3996 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 55m · 91% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 3h 05m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:00 MSP → 12:56 SNA
    DL 2081 · Delta · 3h 56m · 73% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 9h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 140 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 05m layover.
Arrives on time68%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip9h 56mIAD 06:00 to SNA 12:56, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.