tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Phoenix via Minneapolis: arrives on time 71%

  1. 06:00 IAD → 07:55 MSP
    DL 3996 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 55m · 91% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 29m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:24 MSP → 10:46 PHX
    DL 2208 · Delta · 3h 22m · 77% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 44 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 29m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip7h 46mIAD 06:00 to PHX 10:46, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.