tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Phoenix via Minneapolis: arrives on time 76%

  1. 06:00 IAD → 07:55 MSP
    DL 3996 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 55m · 91% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 3h 37m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:32 MSP → 12:46 PHX
    DL 2274 · Delta · 3h 18m · 81% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 9h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 172 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 37m layover.
Arrives on time76%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip9h 50mIAD 06:00 to PHX 12:46, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.