tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → New York via Seattle: arrives on time 80%

  1. 17:13 SNA → 20:14 SEA
    DL 3999 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 3h 01m · 78% on time, 0.9% cancelled
  2. 2h 06m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:20 SEA → 06:34 JFK +1 day
    DL 452 · Delta · 5h 14m · 86% on time, 3.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 81 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 06m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (0.9% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (3.0% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip10h 21mSNA 17:13 to JFK 06:34, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.