tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Washington via Minneapolis: arrives on time 43%

  1. 17:11 XNA → 19:10 MSP
    DL 4012 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 59m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 MSP → 23:27 DCA
    DL 2961 · Delta · 2h 26m · 71% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip5h 15mXNA 17:11 to DCA 23:27, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.