tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Phoenix via Minneapolis: arrives on time 74%

  1. 12:03 MSN → 13:37 MSP
    DL 4102 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 34m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 17m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:54 MSP → 16:09 PHX
    DL 2284 · Delta · 3h 21m · 82% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection91%The first flight arrived more than 32 minutes late on 9% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 17m layover.
Arrives on time74%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (91%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip6h 12mMSN 12:03 to PHX 16:09, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.