tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Phoenix via Minneapolis: arrives on time 79%

  1. 08:52 MSN → 10:15 MSP
    DL 4103 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 18m · 78% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 4h 39m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:54 MSP → 16:09 PHX
    DL 2284 · Delta · 3h 21m · 82% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 9h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 234 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 4h 39m layover.
Arrives on time79%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip9h 23mMSN 08:52 to PHX 16:09, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.