tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Newark via Minneapolis: arrives on time 70%

  1. 08:52 MSN → 10:15 MSP
    DL 4103 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 18m · 78% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 55m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:10 MSP → 17:53 EWR
    DL 2866 · Delta · 2h 45m · 76% on time, 5.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 190 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 55m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (5.7% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip8h 03mMSN 08:52 to EWR 17:53, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.