tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Los Angeles via Seattle: arrives on time 56%

  1. 17:27 SMF → 19:39 SEA
    DL 4153 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 12m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:25 SEA → 23:15 LAX
    DL 2854 · Delta · 2h 50m · 78% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip5h 48mSMF 17:27 to LAX 23:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.