tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → New York via Seattle: arrives on time 82%

  1. 17:27 SMF → 19:39 SEA
    DL 4153 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 12m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 41m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:20 SEA → 06:34 JFK +1 day
    DL 452 · Delta · 5h 14m · 86% on time, 3.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 116 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 41m layover.
Arrives on time82%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (3.0% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip10h 07mSMF 17:27 to JFK 06:34, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.