tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → San Francisco via Minneapolis: arrives on time 46%

  1. 15:57 STL → 17:40 MSP
    DL 4167 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 43m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:50 MSP → 21:00 SFO
    DL 2809 · Delta · 4h 10m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip7h 03mSTL 15:57 to SFO 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.