tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Seattle via Minneapolis: arrives on time 54%

  1. 15:57 STL → 17:40 MSP
    DL 4167 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 43m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:55 MSP → 20:48 SEA
    DL 881 · Delta · 3h 53m · 75% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 51mSTL 15:57 to SEA 20:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.