tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → New York via Las Vegas: arrives on time 61%

  1. 20:08 SNA → 21:26 LAS
    DL 4179 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 18m · 83% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 2h 04m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:30 LAS → 07:25 JFK +1 day
    DL 498 · Delta · 4h 54m · 64% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 79 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 04m layover.
Arrives on time61%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip8h 16mSNA 20:08 to JFK 07:25, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.