tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → New York via Atlanta: arrives on time 44%

  1. 15:27 XNA → 18:22 ATL
    DL 4442 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 55m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 38m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 ATL → 22:27 LGA
    DL 490 · Delta · 2h 27m · 63% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 53 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 38m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip6h 00mXNA 15:27 to LGA 22:27, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.