tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Phoenix via Atlanta: arrives on time 51%

  1. 15:27 XNA → 18:22 ATL
    DL 4442 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 55m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 37m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:59 ATL → 20:59 PHX
    DL 757 · Delta · 4h 00m · 71% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 52 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 37m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip7h 32mXNA 15:27 to PHX 20:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.