tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Louisville via Detroit: arrives on time 50%

  1. 08:52 ORD → 11:23 DTW
    DL 4456 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 31m · 74% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:13 DTW → 13:39 SDF
    DL 5160 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 26m · 76% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 3h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 41 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip3h 47mORD 08:52 to SDF 13:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.