tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Madison via Detroit: arrives on time 60%

  1. 08:52 ORD → 11:23 DTW
    DL 4456 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 31m · 74% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:26 DTW → 12:43 MSN
    DL 844 · Delta · 1h 17m · 80% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 3h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 41 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection76%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 24% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (76%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip3h 51mORD 08:52 to MSN 12:43, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.