tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Appleton → Las Vegas via Chicago: arrives on time 40%

  1. 17:29 ATW → 18:59 ORD
    UA 4633 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 30m · 60% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:50 ORD → 21:59 LAS
    UA 2242 · United · 4h 09m · 78% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Appleton). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip6h 30mATW 17:29 to LAS 21:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.