tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Appleton → Detroit via Chicago: arrives on time 30%

  1. 17:29 ATW → 18:59 ORD
    UA 4633 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 30m · 60% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:47 ORD → 22:19 DTW
    UA 2426 · United · 1h 32m · 63% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 3h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Appleton). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip3h 50mATW 17:29 to DTW 22:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.