tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Barbara → San Francisco via Los Angeles: arrives on time 62%

  1. 06:00 SBA → 07:03 LAX
    UA 4649 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 03m · 91% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 07m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:10 LAX → 10:45 SFO
    UA 520 · United · 1h 35m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 82 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 07m layover.
Arrives on time62%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip4h 45mSBA 06:00 to SFO 10:45, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.