tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Arcata/Eureka → Seattle via San Francisco: arrives on time 54%

  1. 14:05 ACV → 15:22 SFO
    UA 4655 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 17m · 57% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 2h 16m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 17:38 SFO → 19:47 SEA
    AS 758 · Alaska · 2h 09m · 73% on time, 0.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection76%The first flight arrived more than 46 minutes late on 24% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 16m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (76%) × second flight not cancelled (0.4% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip5h 42mACV 14:05 to SEA 19:47, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.