tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Asheville → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 55%

  1. 10:41 AVL → 11:53 ORD
    UA 4656 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 12m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:40 ORD → 14:20 MSP
    UA 2749 · United · 1h 40m · 78% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Asheville). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip4h 39mAVL 10:41 to MSP 14:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.