tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Tulsa via Chicago: arrives on time 17%

  1. 18:24 BNA → 20:30 ORD
    UA 4679 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 06m · 59% on time, 6.2% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:20 ORD → 23:25 TUL
    UA 1658 · United · 2h 05m · 40% on time, 3.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time17%First flight not cancelled (6.2% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (3.2% are) and within 15 minutes (40%).
Total trip5h 01mBNA 18:24 to TUL 23:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.