tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Memphis via Chicago: arrives on time 25%

  1. 18:24 BNA → 20:30 ORD
    UA 4679 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 06m · 59% on time, 6.2% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:20 ORD → 23:21 MEM
    UA 2317 · United · 2h 01m · 60% on time, 6.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (6.2% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (6.1% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip4h 57mBNA 18:24 to MEM 23:21, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.